Saturday 25 March 2017

REVIEW Brexit: What The Hell Happens Now?

Ok, so I've already deviated from my 'next five books' plan. However, it's with good reason. As soon as I'd snapped up Ian Dunt's 'Brexit: What The Hell Happens Now?' I was keen to get going, not least before Theresa May triggered Article 50. I've appreciated Dunt's superb analysis of post-referendum Britain for some time now on Twitter and in a series of columns. Luckily the book delivers the same blend of smart insight and wit.



There are two over-riding feelings I was left with by the end. Firstly, you have to take your hat off for what Ian Dunt has achieved here. To have been able to produce such an informative text within a relatively short time only increases my admiration for him. Not only that, but the book is future proofed, staying just as relevant now as it was when written - despite the election of a US president and all that has happened in the UK since (including the debate over the Scottish referendum). I feel like I'll refer back to this as a sort of instruction manual to whatever happens after this Wednesday.

For me, Dunt strikes the perfect balance in the book. There's the right level of detail on some fairly complex issues but, at 160-odd pages, it can all be digested quickly and easily. It's clearly the result of a lot of research and hard work - without ever feeling the need to talk down to the reader. The passages on veterinary medicine, farming and fishing are great examples of the complexity of the issues up for negotiation, a complexity which was all-too-often buried amid the bluster of both sides of the referendum campaign.

Yet, aside from admiration, I also came away from this feeling pretty terrified. The next few years are going to be one hell of a challenge aren't they? I'd love to say that I have confidence that David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson have mastered the topic of the EU as well as Dunt, but I just don't see it. As he ably demonstrates, there's a lot to do in a short space of time and a distinct lack of the manpower and expertise needed to deliver. Since reading this, I've been taken by how many times I've read and heard people glibly talk about 'falling back on WTO rules' or 'access to the single market' despite clearly having little or no appreciation for what this means in practice.

Indeed, you feel this book shouldn't just be on the shelves of Waterstones but in the pigeon holes of every MP. There's also a sadness to be had in the fact that so little of the workings of the EU - and the potential options for a post-EU future - were understood by the people who went out to vote on June 23rd last year. I still feel like we were given the option of a 'yes/no' answer to a question that was far more complex that a black and white choice such as that.

But this book isn't a polemic delivered by a sore loser (can we scrap the word 'Remoaner' from use? 'Brexit' is bad enough). Yes, it begins with a fairly sobering vision of a worst case scenario in the first chapter but Dunt stresses that the dangers that he outlines in the book arise from the way Brexit is delivered, not Brexit itself. As he puts it:
"Ultimately it is British values which will help get the country through this difficult new period: calm debate, instinctive scepticism, practical judgement and moderation. We appear to have lost sight of these values. The sooner we reaffirm our commitment to them, the better off we will be."
That said, I can't help feeling like Brexit will turn out to be a monumental mistake and the scale of the challenge Dunt sets out only served to convince me that we're about to head along the wrong path. I am worried about what happens next, frankly, and I've seen nothing since June that allays my fears. Dunt's values seem sadly missing from public debate.

For an understanding of what Brexit really means and what our future could look like, I couldn't recommend Dunt's highly enough. It delivers on its promise to be a readable guide to the 'biggest story of the decade' and is a superb piece of writing.

I'm heading back to my original plan next and will be picking up The Man In The High Castle by Philip K Dick. From a bleak real life vision of the future to a dystopian one, maybe it's a natural move?

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