Friday 17 April 2015

Ed and Nicola's dating game dominated BBC debate

So, Nicola fancies Ed but Ed's playing it cool even though a lot of Ed's mates like the sound of Nicola and are even starting to prefer her to him. As burgeoning relationships go, Ed and Nicola isn't exactly Ross and Rachel from Friends but it's clear that it's an increasingly important dynamic in this multi-layered election.



At the end of 'manifesto week' came the BBC Debate and one of the clearest pitches yet from the SNP as Nicola Sturgeon turned to Ed Miliband and called for a deal to 'lock the Tories out of Number 10'. Like her or not she spoke with passion and determination and while Ed did his best to be non-committal it wasn't easy for him to repel a powerfully put plea.

In truth he was never going to say yes to a deal with the SNP, not least for the fear of helping what will surely be a miserable election for Labour north of the border (unlike Nigel Farage this blog won't get confused into thinking Hadrian's Wall is still the border. Unless of course UKIP intends to return us to the Roman times?). Oddly, by being so anti-Tory, the SNP has helped Labour. There's no need for Miliband to offer a formal coalition with Sturgeon, Salmond et al because they've made it clear they wouldn't prop up the Conservatives, the only other plausible big party. Begrudging or otherwise it's clear that the SNP would support Labour even if it made no deal after May 7. Ed will just need to hold his nerve and hope he isn't too reliant on the SNP - something that won't be easy against his feisty Celtic counterpart.

It's difficult to know whether the truth behind the impasse between Labour and the SNP, which neither of the parties will wish to utter in public, will have filtered through from this debate, however. It's always difficult to know if anything at all will change from a TV debate. Will, for example, the simple of fact of not seeing David Cameron on such a stage backfire on him, or help him distance himself from a situation he'll now be able to portray as chaos. The comments from the contenders and watchers on social media suggest it was wrong for the PM to duck the challenge but the important thing is the long-term perception and he'll be hoping that people prefer a chicken to chaos, or at least that it's the latter piled of mud that sticks.

I also wonder what will happen to the Greens. Natalie Bennett, once again, struggled to look as formidable as Nicola Sturgeon when it came to flying the anti-austerity flag. However, I wonder if any English viewers who were impressed with either Sturgeon or Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood will, in time, be won over to voting Green as the 'English alternative' to the SNP or Plaid. Bennett tried her best - at one point over zealously barking her point down the microphone to be heard - but struggled to make an impression once people saw the fascinating game of political footsie between Nicola and Ed emerge. The Scottish First Minister's vow to force Ed and Labour to be better will have spoken to many Old Labour voters, but how will that translate to votes?

And then there's Nigel. Farage fired off with a plea to stand up for the people - making a plea to speak common sense and say what real people are thinking in his opening gambit. I thought this was strong ground for him, the sort of stuff that his 'man in the pub' shtick is made for. And then he chose to attack the audience for being left-wing. I hadn't really heard him booed or jeered so I'm not sure whether this was prompted by anything in particularly or merely a tactic. The anti-BBC stuff will be lapped up by readers of the Mail and his new best mates at the Express, whose owner Richard Desmond handed him a £1 million cheque yesterday. It also feeds the anti-establishment, outsider rhetoric that actually goes down really well in Farage's public speeches. Intended or not, it got the UKIP leader a headline that was only topped by the SNP/Labour exchanges. It was the equivalent of Millwall Football Club's 'no-one likes us, we don't care' manifested as a political campaign and it probably went down well with his core vote who, according to pollsters, are considering returning to the Tory fold.

On the whole Miliband will come away telling himself that the fact it almost turned into 'Ed Miliband's Question Time' for large chunks will be good for helping to paint him as Prime Minister material. The fact that his trio of female questioners will have appealed to his core voters might still undermine his chances though. Given that he's not exactly winning Tories over, he can't really afford for the working class to abandon him. The 'Cameron failed to turn up to his job interview' line from Labour was predictable but strong. Whether that lasts once the debate fades in the past remains to be seen. What's clear, however, is that Nicola won't go away. Can Ed keep his cool and hold her at bay? Only time will tell.

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